INDIA AND THE NEW LOOK OF U.S. NONPROLIFERATION POLICY

U.S. nuclear export policy has undergone major transformations since 1945, and the most recent change, as expressed in the July 18, 2005, India-U.S. Joint Statement, represents an especially significant shift in policy. The document reverses more than a quarter century of U.S. declaratory policy, suggesting that the current U.S. administration regards nuclear proliferation to be both inevitable and not necessarily a bad thing. This article investigates this policy shift, looking at the history of U.S. nuclear export policy and the potential ramifications of the new policy on the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The author also touches on the potential effects of the Joint Statement on Indian-Pakistani relations. Finally, it is suggested that it is not too late for India and the United States to change the new policy with more consideration for the NPT and the Nuclear Suppliers Group Initiative.     

ACHIEVING NUCLEAR BALANCE

One of the most important questions affecting U.S. national security is the future size of the U.S. nuclear stockpile. While there is clear consensus within the U.S. government on the need to reduce the size of the arsenal, there is none on the best path to achieve these cuts; on the type of deterrent necessary to deal with future threats; or on the size of the production complex needed to support that arsenal. Creating a strategic commission to review these questions, as contemplated in the Fiscal 2008 House Defense Authorization bill, is a necessary first step to establish a sensible nuclear policy. The Reliable Replacement Warhead, which has the potential to transform the complex while preserving the current moratorium on nuclear testing, is a program worth exploring further if it stays within congressionally mandated bounds. As Congress considers both programmatic and policy matters related to U.S. nuclear weapons, it is vital that we also renew and strengthen U.S. leadership on nuclear nonproliferation.     

美军新版《太空作战》联合条令的主要内容、变化及分析

2013年5月29日,美军参联会发布新版《太空作战》联合条令。文章对新版条令的主要内容进行了概括,对新、旧版本条令的差异进行了分析研究。     

The industrial structure of National Defence and transaction costs

A recent paper in Defence Economics suggests that “a single variable, the public opinion balance, ... when accompanied by a control variable measuring the proportion of responses in the ‘residuum’ (no opinion or keep the status quo), permits an accurate prediction of subsequent changes in the rate of change of U.S. defense outlays from the mid‐1960s through the 1980s” (Higgs and Kilduff, 1993, p. 227). In contrast, this comment provides evidence that since 1986 the Higgs‐Kilduff model frequently mispredicts the direction of U.S. defense spending. In addition, the average prediction error, and its variance, since 1986 consistently exceeds the average prediction error, and its variance, for the years prior to 1986.     

作战任务总量的迭代收敛性

为降低作战任务的复杂度,提高任务执行效率,研究了作战任务总量及其迭代收敛问题.首先,采用图形和设计结构矩阵,阐明反导作战子任务的复杂联系.再引入任务转移矩阵建立任务总量模型,总结迭代收敛条件.最后,综合考虑资源和时间约束,规划子任务优先级并优化作战资源配置.结合实例分析了任务总量迭代收敛规律的可行性和有效性,为反导作战任务规划提供了理论指导.     

Establishment,simulation and verification of firepower safety control model

On a narrow warship platform, the coordinated use of shipborne weapon systems may cause firepower conflicts, which seriously endangers the ship safety. Meanwhile, with directed-energy weapons mounted on ships, firepower conflicts between weapons become a “high probability event”. Aiming at the problem of firepower safety control, based on the research about the collision probability model of air crafts and space targets and according to the cone of fire model of conventional weapons and directed-energy weapons, this paper solved the firepower conflict probabilities between conventional weapons as well as between conventional weapons and directed-energy weapons respectively using the methods of probability theory, and established the firepower safety control model. Then the calculation of firepower conflict probability was carried out using the dimensionality reduction method based on the equivalent conversion of polar coordinates and the power series method based on Laplace transform. The simulation results revealed that the proposed model and calculation methods are effective and reliable, which can provide theoretical basis and technical support for resolution of firepower conflicts between weapons.     

美国在非洲维和的经验教训及其启示

开展维和行动是实现联合国宗旨和维护世界安全与稳定的重要手段。作为联合国安理会五大常任理事国之一,美国是联合国完成维和任务不可或缺的,甚至具有决定性作用的国家。冷战时期美国的非洲维和行动在争吵和小心翼翼中进行,冷战后美国的非洲维和战略经历了积极主动向有选择地介入转变的过程,当前美国的非洲维和行动则是在崇尚自主的前提下推广美国特色的维和,以期最大限度地彰显美国实力、维护美国核心利益。审视美国非洲维和战略的演变,汲取足够的经验教训,有利于更好地根据世情和国情定位中国未来的维和战略。     

美国边防管理理念及其启示

美中两国作为世界上比较大的海陆兼备的国家,边防环境有着诸多相似之处.从边界管理外移、重视海防、实施差异化边界管理模式、注重科技防边等方面对美国边防管理理念进行分析,提出美国边防管理理念带给中国边防管理工作的启示：陆海并重,突出海防;区别对待;预防为主;科技管边。     

美军现役装备改造后维修保障的做法和启示

现役装备改造是我军装备发展的重要途径.加强对现役装备改造后的维修保障问题研究,是解决目前我军装备改造后战斗力生成的迫切需要.通过深入研究了美军装备改造后维修保障基本做法,对我军当前存在的主要问题进行了探讨,并从中得出对我军加强装备改造后维修保障建设与发展的启示,为提高我军装备维修保障能力做了有益的探索.     

基于3S技术的消防移动指挥系统分析与设计

通过分析消防部队执行灭火抢险救援任务的特点，提出了利用全球卫星定位系统（GPS）、遥感（RS）、地理信息系统（GIS）及网络通讯等高新技术，及时对火灾预警，采取防范措施；在火灾发生发展过程中，不断监测火灾的进程和势态，及时把信息传到防火扑救指挥中心，以便有效地组织救助活动；火灾之后，可以在大范围内实施快速反应，迅速准确地查明受损状况，做出较为准确的评估，为消防移动指挥系统提供了设计理念，并给出了设计方案。